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Abstract Irruptions in plant and animal populations are not uncommon, but the factors underlying irruptions are rarely explored quantitatively. In addition, it has been suggested that these irruptions may be reduced by predators or herbivores, but there is a paucity of controlled experimental evidence. Using data from the Kenya Long‐term Exclosure Experiment (KLEE), we show that populations of perennialHibiscusspp. (primarilyHibiscus flavifolius) show multiple short‐term irruptions a year after rainy periods, increasing in abundance in some cases by more than an order of magnitude before declining in ensuing months and years. We demonstrate that these irruptions are largely limited to experimental plots from which large mammalian herbivores have been excluded, particularly megaherbivores (elephants, mostly). This represents a rare controlled, replicated experimental demonstration of top‐down regulation of irruptions. African elephants and giraffes are often at greater risk of local extirpation than other large mammals, and their absence appears to destabilize this African savanna ecosystem. 

Abstract Climate models predict increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme‐weather events. The impacts of these events may be modulated by biotic agents in unpredictable ways, yet few experiments cover sufficient spatiotemporal scales to measure the interactive effects of multiple extreme events.We used 15 years of a 28‐year experiment spanning several significant droughts to investigate how rainfall, large herbivores, and soil‐engineering termites affect understorey vegetation in a semi‐arid savanna.Herbivory was the dominant influence on community structure—decreasing cover, increasing species richness, and favouring occurrence of annuals relative to perennials—but these effects were contingent on rainfall and termitaria in non‐additive (hence unpredictable) ways.A separate experiment showed that resource enrichment, mimicking the effects of termitaria, does not straightforwardly compensate for top‐down effects of herbivory.Synthesis. Our study highlights the potency of top‐down forcing in African savannas. It suggests impressive robustness to drought and underscores the value of multi‐decadal experiments for studying interactions among multiple drivers of ecosystem dynamics. 

Ecological stability in plant communities is shaped by bottom-up processes like environmental resource fluctuations and top-down controls such as herbivory, each of which have demonstrated direct effects but may also act indirectly by altering plant community dynamics. These indirect effects, called biotic stability mechanisms, have been studied across environmental gradients, but few studies have assessed the importance of top-down controls on biotic stability mechanisms in conjunction with bottom-up processes. Here we use a long-term herbivore exclusion experiment in central Kenya to explore the joint effects of drought and herbivory (bottom-up and top-down limitation, respectively) on three biotic stability mechanisms: (1) species asynchrony, in which a decline in one species is compensated for by a rise in another, (2) stable dominant species driving overall stability, and (3) the portfolio effect, in which a community property is distributed among multiple species. We calculated the temporal stability of herbaceous cover and biotic stability mechanisms over a 22-year time series and with a moving window to examine changes through time. Both drought and herbivory additively reduced asynchronous dynamics, leading to lower stability during droughts and under high herbivore pressure. This effect is likely attributed to a reduction in palatable dominant species under higher herbivory, which creates space for subordinate species to fluctuate synchronously in response to rainfall variability. Dominant species population stability promoted community stability, an effect that did not vary with precipitation but depended on herbivory. The portfolio effect was not important for stability in this system. Our results demonstrate that this system is naturally dynamic, and a future of increasing drought may reduce its stability. However, these effects will in turn be amplified or buffered depending on changes in herbivore communities and their direct and indirect impacts on plant community dynamics.